Exclusive transfer analysis: Neymar’s value skyrockets

The CIES Football Observatory published today its bi-annual list of the 100 big-5 league players with the highest transfer values. The latter were estimated on the basis of an exclusive algorithm. Lionel Messi heads the ranking ahead of teammate Neymar and Chelsea’s Eden Hazard. At fourth and fifth positions are Cristiano Ronaldo and Harry Kane. All data is presented in issue number 131 of the Big-5 Weekly Post.

The valuation is based on an econometric model created by the CIES Football Observatory research team from the analysis of over 1,500 paying fee transfers occurred since 2010. The criteria taken into account refer to both the performance and personal characteristics of players (age, position, contract duration, etc.), as well as to the competition level and results of their employer club and national team represented (if any).

More information on the indicators included in the algorithm is available in the sixth edition of the CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report. Moreover, a player value calculator is freely available online here. It is based on a less sophisticated algorithm including only data accessible to the general public. Although less precise than the statistical model used for these estimates, its predictive power is also high.

The estimated transfer value of Lionel Messi, 251 million €, is 17 million € below that of last June. This is mainly due to the fact that the Argentinean prodigy, who will turn 29 next June, has entered the final phase of his career. Despite outstanding performance levels and transfer cost inflation, his value probably already reached a peak.

Contrary to Messi’s transfer value, that of Neymar has heavily increased since June 2015: from 94 to 153 million €. In 2015, the 23-year-old Brazilian scored 25 goals in 34 appearances in the Spanish Liga, as well as 9 goals in 12 matches at Champions League level. A further increase in Neymar’s transfer value will depend on the outcome of negotiations concerning his contract at Barcelona, which currently runs until 2018.

The third highest transfer value recorded was for Eden Hazard. As for Messi, the value of the Belgian star decreased since June 2015: from 142 to 130 million €. This is mainly due to the poor performances of Chelsea during the first semester of the current season. Hazard himself did not perform at his best. However, the attacking midfielder, recently also fielded as a forward, is still a sure value of world football.

In fourth position is Cristiano Ronaldo. The transfer value of the Portuguese went also slightly down since last June: from 119 to “only” 114 million €. This is mainly due to the age factor: Real Madrid’s striker is set to turn 31 next February. With Santi Cazorla, Ronaldo is the only player aged 30 or over in the top 100 positions of the ranking. This reflects his outstanding talent and performances.

The fifth most valuable player is Harry Kane: 91 million €. This is 35 million € more than in June 2015. During the first months of the current season, the 22 year-old-striker confirmed his extraordinary skills. Moreover, the good results achieved by his employer club, Tottenham, contributed to increase his value. With the same performances on an individual level and Champions League qualification, Kane’s value will probably reach the 100-million € mark at the end of the season.

From sixth to tenth position are other top class attacking players: Raheem Sterling, Antoine Griezmann, Luis Suárez, Sergio Agüero and Alexis Sánchez. The transfer values of Anthony Martial, Paul Pogba, Kevin de Bruyne, Philippe Coutinho and Thomas Müller are also above 70 million €, while those of Robert Lewandowski, Gareth Bale and Romelu Lukaku are just below.

The top 100 list is freely available on the CIES Football Observatory’s website. The data on the 30 most valuable big-5 league club teenagers is available on request at [email protected].