Big-5 league predictions: end of season assessment

With the conclusion of the five major European championships, it is time to assess the CIES Football Observatory predictions published at the very start of the season. As with the two preceding seasons, our demographic model allowed us to accurately predict the majority of teams which went on to finish on the podium for each league: 11 out of 15 in 2010/11, 10 in 2011/12 and 12 in 2012/13.

Furthermore, two teams that we categorised as main outsiders for a podium finish also achieved this goal: Chelsea and Lyon. The remaining team which finished in the top three, Bayer Leverkusen, was forecast to finish 5th according to our model. Of the clubs that we expected to be classified on the podium, the worst result was obtained by Lille (6th), while Arsenal and Schalke 04 just missed this objective (4th).

Generally speaking, our objective was to have an average gap between ranking estimated and obtained of "lower than 4 in all the leagues". This target was achieved with the following average ranking gaps: Italy 2.4, England 2.9, Germany 2.9, France 3.1 and Spain 3.9.

The highest positive gaps per league between ranking achieved and estimated were measured for the following clubs: Nice (+11), Freiburg (+11), Rayo Vallecano and Betis Sevilla (+10), Norwich (+8) and Cagliari (+7). Conversely, the highest negative gaps were recorded for Mallorca (-10), Sunderland (-9), Brest (-8), Stuttgart (-8) and Sampdoria (-6).

With regard to the eventual league champions, it was impossible to do worse than the previous season (0 out of 5). This year we are pleased to have forecast four title winners (all except Manchester United). This is one more than in the previous record season (2010/11). However, the proportion for the three last seasons is still inferior to 50% (7 out of 15).

We are also pleased to announce that the eighth edition of the Annual Review will be published on the 13th of June. It will for the first time include an estimate of the economic value of big-5 league players according to a cutting-edge econometric model exclusively developed by the CIES Football Observatory academic team.

About the CIES Football Observatory

The CIES Football Observatory was set up in 2005 under the name of the Professional Football Players Observatory (PFPO). Since 2011, it is one of the cornerstones of the vast CIES Observatory project, dedicated to the statistical analysis of sport in all its diversity. Click here for more information.