All of the big-5 league seasons are now over. As a result, it is that time of the year to assess the predictions published by the CIES Football Observatory in September 2013 and which used our analysis of key demographic features of each big-5 league club.
The average gap between the league position estimated and that finally achieved at big-5 level was 3.3 positions: from 4.2 in Germany to only 2.3 in England. The ranking gap was higher by 3 for less than two thirds of teams. More information is available here.
Amongst the teams that obtained better results than expected were Torino, Augsburg and Liverpool. In the under-performing team category, we find clubs such as Real Betis, Milan and Manchester United.
This season, the Football Observatory academic team were able to predict 12 of the 15 teams that finished in the top three positions in their respective league: 3 out of 3 in Spain and Germany, followed by 2 out of 3 in Italy (Juventus and Napoli), France (Paris St-Germain and Monaco) and England (Manchester City and Chelsea).
In relation to the actual champions, we were only able to predict 2 out of 5 (Juventus and Paris St-Germain), while Borussia Dortmund finished in second place, Champions League winners Real Madrid in third position and Manchester United ranked only 7th. Since our first predictions in 2010/11, we have correctly forecast 9 champions out of a possible 20 (45%).
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