CIES Football Observatory big-5 league predictions

For the fourth time, the CIES Football Observatory presents its predictions for the big-5 European leagues. According to our research conclusions the teams with the greatest chance of success this year are Manchester United in England, Real Madrid in Spain, Borussia Dortmund in Germany, Juventus in Italy and Paris St-Germain in France.

Our predictions are based on the analysis of player profile data from the perspective of "experience" (number of matches played and results achieved), "prolificacy" (number of goals scored and level of the competition) and "stability" (number of seasons with the employer club and years remaining on contract).

Using these indicators, we have classified teams by taking into account the 11 players with the highest scores (potential "starting 11"), as well as squad members ranked between the 12th and 22nd positions ("substitutes").

The final ranking has been estimated on the basis of the average position in the two tables. In case of equality, we ranked teams according to their overall score.

Manchester United and Paris St-Germain are the only two most probable champions ranked in first position for both "starting 11" and "substitute" players. While the competitive advantage of Borussia Dortmund is mainly related to the 11 players with the highest scores, and that of Juventus is due to the quality of substitutes. The same holds true for Real Madrid with respect to Barcelona.

Monaco is the only promoted team with a real chance of finishing the season in the top three of their domestic league. Conversely, this year many prestigious teams risk being sucked into a fight against relegation (Fulham, Levante, Valenciennes, Werder Bremen, Torino, etc.).

Using the indicators described above, we were also able to identify the players with the highest scores, and whose performance levels should have the greatest impact on results obtained by their respective teams (key players).

The full predictions may be downloaded from the CIES Football Observatory website.

We are at your disposal for more information at [email protected].