The CIES Football Observatory has analysed the career trajectory of squad members from the last four World Cup finalists and is now able to identify some of the factors which allowed them to outperform their rivals in the competition.
The Observatory academic team have selected the following indicators for assessing the potential of the 2014 World Cup participants:
The results for each national team are illustrated through a diagram with green or red boxes. A green box means that the value measured for the team is superior to the minimal figure observed for the last four World Cup finalists for the 11 players with the highest values. If this is not the case, the box is red. The greater the proportion of green boxes, the higher the probability of reaching the final stages of the competition. In the case of a tie, we took into account the number of World Cup matches of national teams during the last four editions.
This approach has also allowed us to predict a hypothetical scenario for the outcome of the competition, suggesting that Spain will beat Brazil in the final, with Argentina in 3rd place and France in 4th position. The full analysis is presented in the World Cup Scenario report.
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