Assessment of the big-5 league predictions

Issue number 114 of the Big-5 Weekly Post presents the assessment of the CIES Football Observatory predictions for the five major European leagues. The analysis of the demographic structure of teams allowed our research team to forecast four out of five champions. The only exception is AS Rome (2nd position behind Juventus). The average gap between rank estimated and achieved varies between 1.9 in the most predictable league – Spanish Liga – to 3.5 in the least predictable championship – French Ligue 1.

The clubs having achieved the best ranking with respect to that expected looking at the demographic structure of their squads are Swansea and Crystal Palace (+8 positions) in England, Eintracht Frankfurt (+8) in Germany, Montpellier and Nice (+7) in France, Genoa (+7) in Italy, as well as Elche and Rayo Vallecano (+4) in Spain.

Conversely, the most under-achieving clubs are Parma (-10) in Italy, Toulouse (-10) in France, Hertha Berlin (-7) in Germany, Everton, Burnley and Leicester (-5) in England, as well as Real Sociedad, Levante and Granada (-4) in Spain.